Here we go again

The Yankees got off to a nice start this year and the Red Sox struggled. Then Jason Bay crushed the hardest-hit home run ball I've ever seen anyone get against Mariano Rivera on the night of April 24 at Fenway Park, and the Red Sox were off and running -- off to an 8-0 record against the Yankees, and off to a long stretch of time in first place. The Yankees actually held a slim lead heading into the teams' three-game set in June, but that was quickly flopped.

After that, I hoped the Yankees would simply keep themselves within striking distance of the Red Sox. There was no reason to believe they would play so much better ball than Boston as to give themselves a lead of 2 1/2 games heading into this weekend's series. But here we are.

Who is the better team? Anyone watching baseball the last two months would have a hard time picking the Red Sox, but I saw one comment on ESPN, from a fan, that was dead-on: "You don't go 8-0 against a team that's better than you."

So what does it all mean? Were the Red Sox really that much better than the Yankees from late April through early June? They clearly were. And if things really haven't changed much since then, then I guess the Sox are going to win this series this weekend, too. So how much have things changed?

Let's start with the matchups. Chamberlain vs. Smoltz tonight. Clearly, the edge goes to Joba. But can't you just smell one of those can't-explain-it anomalies coming? You know, the one where Joba is erratic and needs 110 pitches to go 5.1 innings, while Smoltz, who has been smacked around by everyone but the Stratford Brakettes, puts it all together for one night?

I don't see why this would happen, and it's only one game, but suppose it does and the Red Sox win it. Now they're 9-0 heading into Friday's Beckett-Burnett showdown. You know you have to go with Beckett in that one. Burnett has stunk it up against Boston -- though he's been lights-out since -- while Beckett is at the top of his game right now. If that aforementioned scenario plays out, you can easily see the Yankees dropping the first two of this series.

Saturday should be a lock, with Sabathia against shaky Clay Buchholz. Sunday is a little closer, with Pettitte, who's been hot, against Lester, whose ERA is better but has not been overwhelming this year.

You can see this series being a split, but a win tonight should give the Yankees the inside track on taking 3 of 4 and increasing their lead to 4 1/2 games.

My original question: how much is different? What's different is pitching. How confident would you feel, Yankee fans, if a healthy Daisuke Matsuzaka were opposing Chamberlain tonight and a healthy Wakefield were going Saturday against CC? Still confident, but less confident, I would guess.

But that's not the case. And the Yankee bullpen is fortified for the series while the Sox pen is shaky -- though we have no Hughes tonight.

And anyway, how important is this series, anyway? Obviously the first eight games were important, but they weren't the be-all and end-all. If they were, the Yankees wouldn't be in first place. Say Boston sweeps this weekend. Now we're all sure the Yankees can't beat them -- until they get hot again against all the weaker sister and go back into first place, and then win the next series with Boston.

Yet, you get the feeling the Yankees are ready to win games like this. They are certainly due. Three of four puts them pretty comfortably in front, and the Red Sox more likely have to deal with Tampa and Texas just to get the wild card. That's my prediction.

Not that I won't take a sweep!

Some random thoughts: WEEI reported that David Ortiz would hold a press conference from Yankee Stadium at 3:30 today. Never happened, though WEEI.com now says it's scheduled for Saturday afternoon. Could it be that the information for which Ortiz was waiting turned out to be, "Hey Papi -- you really were busted for steroids"? Or could it be that he really has a good alibi and just wants to let Yankee fans rip him for two nights, then make asses of them Saturday? My guess is he's as guilty as anyone whose been caught, and he'll say the exact same things they did: Nothing. Well, nothing of value, anyway.

Watching the MLB Network pregame show now. The Embassy does not subscribe to the MLB Package and thus does not get games on the YES Network. Thus we here get to watch games on national TV, or when they play the Red Sox. Problem is I'm pretty sure the game will be blacked out here on MLBN, and I'll be stuck with the NESN broadcast, so hearing Jim Kaat's voice during the MLBN pregame show is nothing but a tease. I guess, right now, I wish he had gone to work full-time with NESN instead of just a temp role.

By the way, does Kaat have a roided-up son who can take the place of Jerry Remy's roided-up son? Bill Simmons, in a conversation with his Yankee-fan buddy Jack-O on the BS Report, seemed to think this story is going to become a real problem for the "Olde Towne Team." I don't know about that, but it sure would be fun. Incidentally, that podcast on Monday was the first one I ever downloaded to my iPod. Apparently Jack-O has a big following on Twitter. I may break my Twitter cherry with his tweets. Imagine Sports Guy humor, without the insufferable Red Sox propaganda.

Gotta get going to cook some pre-game burgers with the wife here at The Embassy, which has shut its doors to outsiders. Had my two best Boston friends here to watch the Sox last Friday. None of that this weekend. I want this to be all about rooting for the Yankees. Not interested in a fan rivalry, so the Embassy is in lockdown. All Sox fans who try to get in will be hit in the face with a cat.

Upcoming topics: the wedding and Ireland honeymoon, the AC/DC show, the start of Giants camp and some more fun with the Typical Boston Fan, a Boston blogger on whom I have missile lock.

Check for updates during the game. LET'S GO YANKEES!